With the rising concerns about the chances of an upcoming third wave of COVID19 in India, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) stated today, on July 22, that the exact timing of when the country would be affected is not certain.

In a presentation to the Delhi Disaster Management Authority (DDMA), ICMR expert Samiran Panda explained that mathematical modelling cannot exactly  predict the ‘third wave’ but its severity is expected to be far less than the second wave if no new variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerges.

Panda also said that the third wave is subject to COVID19 appropriate behaviour and it would aggravate if people recklessly flouted COVID norms.

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“He (Dr Panda) mentioned that a substantial third wave would be plausible, if any new variant emerges which is more infectious and escapes prior immunity and in the absence of adequate lockdown measures. In the absence of these two factors, the projected third wave is unlikely to be as severe as the second wave,” states a DDMA document accessed by an English daily.

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“Timing of the third wave remains uncertain, and it would be driven by factors outside the scope of modeling,” it added. 

Are children more at risk from COVID19 infection in the third wave?

There is no clarity on whether children are at a higher risk in the third wave of the pandemic.

In May, the National Commission for Protection of Child Rights (NCPCR) urged the Union Health Ministry and states to take cognizance of the preparations to tackle the upcoming third wave of COVID-19 —  which experts say is likely to impact the younger population significantly.  

Meanwhile, Randeep Guleria, director of New Delhi-based All India Institute Of Medical Sciences [AIIMS] and a member of India’s COVID task force clarified on May 24 that there is no indication as of now of children being more vulnerable to the third wave of COVID19.

“It has been said that children will be infected the most in the third wave but the Pediatrics Association has said that this is not based on facts. It might not impact children so people should not fear,” said Guleria. He was speaking during an official media briefing, at the National Media Centre, organised by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.