“If I speak generally, the food prices have gone up by 20-25% in 2019. Today, urad dal (black lentils) costs Rs 90 a kilo. It costed Rs 69 the same time last year. Last year, potato’s price was Rs 8 a kilo in the wholesale market, but, this year, it is Rs 20 a kilo. Wheat costing Rs 17-18 a kilo is also Rs 21 now,” said Anand Soni of Bundelkhand’s Hamirpur district.
Soni, 56, has to provide for a family of five. He hawks sarees and other clothes in the village. As per Anand, arhar (pigeon pea) and moong (yellow split gram) have also turned expensive. A resident of Bharua Sumerpur Nagar Panchayat, Anand lives in that part of Bundelkhand which suffers from water shortage, but nevertheless, produces good crops of pulses.
When asked about his income, Anand said: “Currently, I earn Rs 500 on an average; last year too, I used to earn about the same. My income increases during the wedding season and drops during rain, however, the average remains the same; around Rs 500. It means that despite the income remaining the same, the expenditure has gone up.”
The Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution Ministry had, on December 10, 2019, informed the Lok Sabha that the prices for 20 essential food items out of 22 have gone up in 2019. The Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution Minister, Ram Vilas Paswan had, in answer to a query, said that it had occurred due to the gap between the demand and supply.
Paswan had also stated that erratic weather in several parts of the country had caused the jump in prices. Due to unseasonal rains, crops were ruined on a large scale in 2019; the effect of which would be seen in 2020. This means that eatables could get costlier this year.
The rains occurring between August and November had heavily affected the crops of urad, corn, soybean, jowar, bajra, onion, tomato, grapes and arhar in Maharashtra besides affecting the sowing of rabi season crops in many states.
The incessant rain for two months in Madhya Pradesh has ruined the crops of soybean and urad while affecting the crop of potato in Uttar Pradesh and arhar in Karnataka. In Bundelkhand, spread over Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, urad crop has been severely affected. Farmers in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra had even committed suicide due to the failed crops.
As per the web portal of the ministry of consumer affairs, on January 1, 2019, the average price for onion was Rs 20 per kg which is Rs 80 a kg now. In the retail market, urad used to retail at Rs 70/ kg a year ago, and today at Rs 102. Onion had reached Rs 200 a kg by December 2019.
Prices of arhar and moong have also gone up by 15-20% whereas the price for potato has shot up by more than 40%. Rice and wheat prices have also gone up by 10%.
The rate of inflation in retail is on a constant rise. In November 2019, the retail rate of inflation had reached 5.54% from October’s 2019’s 4.62% while it was 3.99% in the month of September. The retail inflation rate is at its highest in three years, prior to this retail inflation rate had been 6.07% in 2016.
When contacted for this story, senior journalist and editor of news portal Moltol, Kamal Sharma, said: “The prices of cooking oils shall rise in the new year. Madhya Pradesh’s soybean crop has been ruined and so its effects are visible. The prices of cooking oils have gone up by 10% in recent months. While rabi crops will be the same as the year before, the pulse crops of Kharif season have been adversely affected. So, to stop the pulses’ price from further escalating, the government will have to increase the import quota — urad’s quota already had to be increased by 2.5 lakh tonnes. With 1.5 lakh tonnes imported previously, a total import of 4 lakh tonnes of urad has been made. About 50% crops of Madhya Pradesh and Bundelkhand have been spoiled and its effects will be visible in the new year.”
He added: “Due to the heavy rains preceded by the dry spell of the drought, the moong production has been affected in Karnataka and Maharashtra. The entire nation is dependent on Rajashthan for moong now, but even there, it is delayed and inadequate. To stabilize its prices, imports would have to be made from Myanmar. Arhar’s import quota will also have to be increased but since arhar is the most widely consumed of all pulses, it can jeopardize home budget. In the case of cooking oils, everything rests upon the crop of mustard since soybean crops have already been spoiled. If the weather remains good, a fine yield of mustard may be hoped, but soybean oil will be expensive.”
On January 1, 2019, the nationwide average retail price for arhar was Rs 70 per kg, which turned Rs 85 by January 1, 2020.
Suresh Agrawal, the head of the All India Dal Mill Association, said: “The arhar crops of Karnataka and Maharashtra were hit due to rains. New year too has begun amid poor weather conditions. So, the prices of arhar will escalate this new year. The government may have to increase its import but our arhar consumption is copious. Common people will have to spend more for pulses.”
In 2019, Madhya Pradesh received 46% more rains than average during August to November. As per the Madhya Pradesh government, out of the 149.35 lakh hectares of Kharif crops, 60.52 lakh hectares have been spoiled affecting more than 55.36 lakh farmers.
In the year 2019, throughout the country, soybean was cultivated over 113.3 lakh hectare area out of which Madhya Pradesh accounted for 48% (55.160 lakh hectares) followed by Maharashtra with 39.550 lakh hectares of soybean. Rajasthan had cultivated soybean over 10 lakh hectares. Together, these three states produce 90% of soybean in the country and all their crops have been ruined due to incessant rains hence the Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) has predicted a fall of 18% in the country’s soybean production.
For the current harvest season, India’s total soybean output is 90 lakh tonnes whereas last year, it was 109 lakh tonnes. The SOPA had pegged India’s soybean output for the first Kharif harvest season 2014 at 114.8 lakh tonnes. The association had stated in its report that soybean’s acreage for the year 2018 was 1.076 crore hectares whereas, in 2018, it was 1.084 crore hectares. Madhya Pradesh’s soybean production is expected to be 40 lakh tonnes, which was 58 lakh tonnes last year, showing a 40% fall.
In Maharashtra, unseasonal rains have ruined crops of 70 lakh hectares.
In Marathwada, Konkan, Pune, Sangli, Satara, Kolhapur and Sholapur crops such as cotton, grapes, soybean, corn, bajra, paddy and jowar have been gravely affected. In Marathwada, 85% of Kharif crop has been destroyed whereas in Pune 1.36 lakh hectares, in Sangli about 65,267 hectares, Sholapur 36,345 hectares, Satara 11,800 hectares and in Kolhapur 1,055 hectares of ready-to-harvest crops were ruined due to out of season rains.
Due to bad weather, the arrival and sowing of onions had been delayed due to which onion continues to sell for more than Rs 100 a kilo. The new crop of onion has not yet entered the market adequately. In an answer to a query, Paswan had stated, in Lok Sabha on December 19, 2019 that for the late Kharif season of 2019-20, the onion output may remain 26% lower due to which onion’s supply and demand would be affected. Last year this time, onions sold for Rs 20-25 a kilo whereas this year it is more than Rs 100.
Onion is a seasonal crop and is cultivated thrice a year. Rabi season is from March to June, Kharif crop is from October to December and late Kharif crop is from January to March. From July to October, the onion supply is maintained out of stocks in cold storage.
Paswan had also stated: “During 2019-20 Kharif season, onion was sown with a delay of 3-4 weeks. Due to the delayed monsoons, there has been shrinkage of its sowing area. Later, incessant rains have gravely affected the crop of onion in Karnataka, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh directly impacting its production.”
In the new year, sugar too will affect the home budget. The country’s sugar production has gone down by 35% in the current season. The biggest organization of private sugar mills, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), has stated in its report issued on December 2019 that the sugar production for the current marketing season had plummeted to 45.8 lakh tonnes by 35% till December 15. During the same time, in the marketing year 2018-19, the sugar production was 70.5 lakh tonnes.
The report states that the delayed sugar crushing in Maharashtra and Karnataka has affected sugar production. Till December 15, there has been about 74% fall in Maharashtra and a 24% fall in Karnataka in the current season’s sugar production. At the time, however, the biggest producing state of sugar, Uttar Pradesh has managed to increase its sugar production by more than 12%.
Vijay Sardana, an agri-export expert, said: “Despite the fall in production, there shall be no rollback in exports. The export demand is estimated to be higher than before. So, even though the mill owners may benefit, the common people will have to face the price hike. Consumers will have to shell out more for sugar this year.”
The country’s major sugar-producing states, Maharashtra and Karnataka, have registered a major fall in its production. In Maharashtra, till December 15, 2019, the sugar mills could produce only 7.66 lakh tonnes of sugar as against last year’s 29 lakh tonnes during the same period.
During the sugar season of 2018-19, Maharashtra had produced 107 lakh tonnes, which has dropped to 58 lakh tonnes this time. The fall in sugar production is largely attributed to bad weather due to which the sugarcane acreage decreased. In Karnataka, the third-largest sugar producing state in India, the sugar production till December 15, 2019, had fallen by 23.74% to 10.6 lakh tonnes. In 2018, it was 13.9 lakh tonnes.
