Monsoon 2021: Forecast, intensity, duration — all your questions answered
Announcing its forecast for the upcoming monsoon season, Skymet Weather stated the overall monsoon would be ‘healthy normal’ to the tune of 103%. But some areas along the northern plains and the northeast are likely to be at risk of being rain deficient. It has ruled out drought this year.
All eyes are now set on the India Meteorological Department, the country’s official weather forecasting agency, which is expected to announce its monson 2021 forecast soon. Pixabay
In its forecast for the southwest monsoon season 2021 released today, Skymet Weather, a private weather forecasting agency, has said that overall India will experience a ‘healthy, normal’ monsoon season of 103 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 880.6mm from June to September. The model error margin is +/- 5 per cent.
Whereas the season’s total rainfall is expected to be normal, the private weather agency expects the plains of North India along with few parts of the northeast region to be at a risk of being rain deficient through the four-month long monsoon season. However, it has ruled out the possibility of drought this year.
Also, interior parts of Karnataka may face scanty rains in the core monsoon months of July and August, said Skymet. The onset month of June and the withdrawal phase of September is likely to give good countrywide rainfall distribution, it said in its forecast.
In its earlier preliminary monsoon forecast issued in January this year, Skymet had assessed the monsoon 2021 to be ‘normal’ with seasonal rainfall ending in the upper half of the normal rainfall range (96-104 per cent of LPA).
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Whereas Skymet has forecasted a ‘healthy normal’ southwest monsoon rainfall this year, all eyes are now set on the India Meteorological Department, the country’s official weather forecasting agency, which is expected to announce its monson 2021 forecast soon.
It also stated that Tamil Nadu is expected to receive below normal rains. Also, Gujarat, western parts of Madhya Pradesh and the Konkan region is likely to experience slightly deficient rains.
According to Skymet Weather, following are the monsoon probabilities for Southwest Monsoon 2021:
10 per cent chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110 per cent of LPA)
15 per cent chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA)
60 per cent chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA)
15 percent chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA)
0 per cent chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA)